Monday, November 01, 2010

Election 2010: predictions, resources, etc. - engaging the BibChr Brain Trust

First: do you have any voter's guides you like, online? Make them good, I'll update this post.

Second: so, what are your predictions for tomorrow? Make them broad or specific.

I'm torn. Part of my brain thinks that the GOP tide will be even greater than virtually anyone thinks, that the MSM has been doing all it can to hold it back, and it will fail.

The other part of my brain notes that I have not seen a broad cultural shift towards rejecting totalitarian control by elite caregivers. That is what the Dems are and promise; to reject them is to reject that — and I'm not so sure that this generation of state-educated borglings are ready to reject that.

But hey, we live in a day in which Charismatics can make predictions in the name of God, be dead-wrong, and still be welcomed by their fellow loose-Canoneers. So why shouldn't I make predictions for which I claim no inspiration? What the hey?

So here are my almost totally unscientific wish/predictions:

HOUSE: GOP gains 72 seats. Heck, while I'm wishing-like-a-madman, let's throw in our own impregnable Demoborg Doris Matsui and make it 73!

SENATE: GOP gains 12, takes over Senate.  Angle, Fiorina, and O'Donnell all win. MSM refugees either jump off of bridges or enter convents in droves. MSM taken over by homeschoolers. World changes for better. My hair starts to grow back in.

Obama: says he's gotten the message, needs to communicate his goals better, talks even more, changes nothing.


Fred Butler said...

Me, Me, Me, Me!!!!

I mean, if you ask for trolling...

Al said...

At the end of the day the Republicans will gain 60 seats in the house. There will then follow a few blue dog democrat defections, making the total gain 65.

In the Senate we will see 51 Dems and 49 Reps. Joe Lieberman will see the writing on the wall and caucus with the Reps, giving us a 50-50 split. Joe Biden will have to vote on every major bill and the Obama administration will own every single bad law and will oppose the majority of the country on every effort to repeal his socialist agenda.

2012 - Sarah Palin wins the presidency in a landslide election. Only California votes against her, causing Dan's remaining hair to fall out in one post-election shower. Dan finally moves to Florida and joins a CREC Church (as long as we are dreaming)

al sends

Shaun Marksbury said...

It sounds inspired to me. Definitely inspirational. :) Maybe you were a prophet and didn't even know it!

I feel like we're invited to break the rules here. Nothing special: I posted on the AFA California score card and then linked to a couple of guides with some commentary.

Moon said...

well I don't know about your hair growing back...but hey who knows anything can happen! :P Obama can repent and trust in Christ after tomorrow...

I just hope Toomey wins in PA...although i'm not crazy about his stance on gun regulation...I have mixed feelings about gun control in general

Herding Grasshoppers said...

I'd love to see your first two wishes come true.

Sadly, it's the third that we can count on...

CR said...

I wish I was as confident with my miraculous prophetic gifts as you were with yours. I wish mine were as rosy as yours. But here goes nothing:

A net gain of 8 Senate seats for Republicans. Could be as high as 11, but I don't have a lot of confidence in CA, WV, or WA voters. Unemployment is high in CA at 12.5% but there are enough far left liberals and really dumb independents to continue to vote the way they a

WV voters are enigma and uninformed. They vote Republican for President but continue to vote democrat for Senate. They are faced with voting their popular democrat Gov as senator and are ignorant of the fact that once elected he will have to turn far left.

I predict around 55-65 House seats for the Republicans.

I also predict that President Obama will get to appoint one more liberal judge on the SCOTUS replacing Ginsburg leaving him appointing an unprecedented three justices in one term and I predict the President will not win reelection because I don't think unemployment will come down to Bush levels.

Merrilee Stevenson said...

My biggest concern is that the GOP does so well, things start improving, and the big O will claim credit for it come 2012.

"My prediction? Pain is my prediction!
Get outa my corner! I don't need no HAS BEEN in my corner!" (vintage Mr. T--prolly not correctly quoted--I was a wee child back then.)

In other words: incumbents lose big.

Anonymous said...

Republicans will take 65 seats in the house. Senate is too close to call.

Republicans will throw conservatives a few bones: 1) complain about Obama agenda; 2) submit bill to repeal Obamacare; etc...

Establishment Republicans will put up with the new blood Republicans for a few months but once the newbies get a bit more aggressive in their efforts the establishment will distance themselves and talk about how Republicans should be a more moderating force.

There will be a threat of a government shutdown but the Republicans will once again prove to be spineless.

Social Security, Medicare (including prescription plan), and our worldwide military presence will not be addressed and the debt will continue to rise.

The budget deficit might be smaller in the immediate future as the likelihood of huge stimulus plans is below 50%.

Should the Republicans squander this opportunity, they will lose the house in 2012 and Obama (or Clinton) will be in the White House again. Also under that scenario, the secessionist movement will gather steam and we could be looking at the collapse of the "United" States of America.

Tim said...

I live in an area once represented by Phil Gramm (pre-Senate). Redistricting in 2000 put us under Chet Edwards, a guy who kept getting reelected by pouring taxpayer money into the district's universities and military bases each election year.

We have the dubious distinction of being the most conservative district in the USA represented by a Democrat.

This time, he's down by 12 points in the polls. I'm hoping that this bears out on Election Day.

GrammaMack said...

"WV voters are enigma and uninformed." Our son who married a WV girl and lives there told me that, although most people there have conservative values, when it comes to voting it's "My grandaddy voted Democrat, and my daddy voted Democrat, so I vote Democrat." At any rate, this Canuck is praying for all of you.

Paula Bolyard said...

Voter guide - iVoters offers a wealth of voter information at your fingertips.

It's a national, non-partisan site produced by the American Policy Roundtable, a conservative, pro-family public policy organization. at iVoters you can:

1. Type in your address and find a list of all the federal candidates in your area with links directly to their websites. For OH, PA, TN, and FL you'll find state-level races as well.

2. Links to voter guides from over 100 newspapers across the country.

3. Links to dozens of groups that endorse/rate candidates - from both sides of the political spectrum.
This includes links to pro-life and pro-abortion endorsements for every state organization that makes this information available.

4. Forums where candidates, friends of candidates, and ordinary citizens can promote, criticize, and inform others about candidates & races. Both state and local forums.

5. Links to campaign finance websites where you can find out who's donating money to the candidates' campaigns.

Free and no ads!

Disclaimer: I am slightly, just a little, very biased, having been involved in the research end of this site and you should at least take a look because it was extremely torturous to have to go to all those Planned Parenthood websites!!!


I'm not making any predictions, but I will say we have to put all gains in the context of previous years' losses. The GOP has a huge deficit to recover from.

Randy Talley said...

I'm not conspiracy theorist, but sometimes polls can be manipulated. I won't be surprised if the GOP does worse than predicted, followed by every MSM outlet and liberal politician claiming that the results are clearly not a mandate of any sort.

But I also won't be surprised if they do as well or better than the polls are currently showing. And I won't be the least bit upset if that happens.

Aaron said...

California votes in Jerry Brown who will, with the help of a ultra-liberal CA legislature, encourage every last business and sane minded person to flee the state. Every person unfortunate to remain will be taxed into poverty in a foolhearty attempt to get CA out of a fiscal crisis. Obama wins in 2012 by promising to bail out CA.

Stan is disappointed because the succession movement is quashed by the Federal government and many local liberal governments. He and I decide to buy an island in the South Pacific and start a new country. Dan leaves CA to Pastor a church in said new country. Stan forces me to agree to legalize drugs in our new country, but I figure it doesn't matter because, well, we've hand picked the residents of said country and none of them would use drugs anyways.

Unknown said...

The republicans will win the house handily and gain at least five seats in the senate.

They will successfully block the President's agenda, but because the Democratic senate will filibuster anything that they don't agree with, nothing will get done.

The Democrats and Obama will then run on "they had the last two years, and they didn't accomplish anything" in 2012. Republicans will wage a poor response to this accusation like they did in 2006, failing to educate the American people on what a filibuster is.

At which point the amnesia-prone and ill-informed American people will make it another nailbiter of an election, possibly giving Obama another 4 years and/or giving the Democrats back the house.

-sigh- I'm getting cynical in my old age. Wish I were more hopeful.

Paula Bolyard said...

Tim said, "Redistricting in 2000 put us under Chet Edwards..."

Feel like staying home this year because you're not inspired by any of the candidates this year? Same here. But Tim points out a very, very good reason to vote.

Because this was a census year, congressional districts will be re-districted. For example, Ohio lost some of its population, therefore is expected to lose some seats in Congress. That means the lines for Congressional districts will have to be redrawn.

Depending on the state laws, whoever controls the legislature/governorship will probably have a huge say in where the lines are drawn for the new districts. In a perfect world, this would be done in a way that does not give an advantage to one party or another. In the "real" world, it's done in a way to keep incumbents in their seats in perpetuity.

Check out this insane district map in Ohio, drawn to ensure it would be a Democratic district forever.

I'm really, really unhappy with some of the GOP candidates in Ohio this year and I'm even more unhappy with the way the GOP establishment went about choosing them. However, I'm going to hold my nose and vote for them because there is a lot more at stake than just this individual election.

David said...

In what is nothing less than a political miracle, my state full of farmers and senior citizens will elect a Republican Senator, and might elect a Republican Representative.If both happen, there will be tears and profanity around the gossip table at the café.

I will neither cry nor cuss.

Sonja said...

Alice said:

"At which point the amnesia-prone and ill-informed American people will make it another nailbiter of an election, possibly giving Obama another 4 years and/or giving the Democrats back the house."

Bill Clinton seems to be the most popular political figure today due to the peace and properity of his 2 terms.

Wrong Bill ... Gates brought us prosperity, and BC brought us Bosnia where we still have troops. BC was smart enough to stay out of the way of the technology jugernaut. Not so this crew.

Anyway, bloodbath in the House for the dems, but I predict they keep the Senate handily. But all the crazy progressive dems in the House are safe ... unfortunately.

Word verification: demmelea -- that MUST mean something!

Anonymous said...

Sir Aaron,
Best laugh I've had in a while!

I do like the island idea with Dan pastoring our new church.

Anonymous said...

This is not an election... This is a restraining order... Go to the ballot box and put an end to this abusive relationship. -- P.J. O'Rourke

A must read article before voting.

lee n. field said...

Part of my brain thinks that the GOP tide will be even greater than virtually anyone thinks, that the MSM has been doing all it can to hold it back, and it will fail.

GOP wins big. Aaaaand, then what? The GOP will ultimately disappoint. It's what they do best.

Hopefully we (Ill-i-noise, People's Republic of) will have a new governor.

Marla said...

I am cautiously optimistic that the GOP will do better than predicted. I'm looking forward to all the long faces on the MSM on election night.

Here in Ohio, Strickland might be re-elected, but won't be able to accomplish anything because the legislature will be firmly in GOP control.
If that happens on the Federal level, so much the better. We're usually better off when the government accomplishes nothing of consequence. I'm getting cynical too.

Rachael Starke said...

Short term Prediction - +65 in House, can't keep Governorships/vs. Senate races straight so won't hazard a number, but Carly may squeak through (please Lord), Christine won't, and Sharon will help Dirty Harry join the ranks of the new 99ers.

Also, Chris Wallace commentates under the headline "The Thrill is Gone"

Aspirational prediction (although I also like Aaron's proposal :) )-

Thanks to the raucous celebrations now ensuing thanks to the Giants win, Dems stay home in droves to sleep it off. Meg squeaks in over Gov. Moonbeam and immediately calls Carly for image makeover tips. Sarah looks at the landscape and decides what she reallyneeds to do is to fire all the people who write her material and learn to actually communicate herself. Puts the word out for actively available executive communication expert and gets to work. Retooled and finally ready for primetime, she makes friends with Chris Christie and Christie/Palin hit the road.

Reality-based prediction - Carly squeaks in and, just as happened at HP, simultaneously ticks people off with the diva attitude and fails to deliver. Unemployment hits 30%, and I start praying for that overseas gig that VMware occasionally dangles, or, alternately, I reactivate my Australian citizenship, hightail my family back to Melbourne, and hunt down Rupert, whom my family will shower with Christian and American love, completely exploding his very Australian mind. :)

Paula Bolyard said...

Marla said, " I'm looking forward to all the long faces on the MSM on election night. "

Bill O'Reilly said to night not to let your children watch MSNBC because there will be people committing suicide over there.

"Here in Ohio, Strickland might be re-elected..."

My son just texted me from Hillsdale College. A group of 31 Hillsdale students just arrived back from Ohio where they spent the past 3 days campaigning for GOP candidates. They knocked on 11,000 doors and made 5000 phone calls. Each student knocked on an average of 118 doors a day! He said he's very, very confident based on the positive responses he received.

candy said...

I'm glad you all are optimistic Sharron Angle will win. I am more cautious because Clark Co. (Las Vegas) is so corrupt that Reid might still find a way to steal the election. The local newspaper(propoganda rag) has actively printed inflammatory articles daily against Sharron Angle. I am praying heartily for Angle. The Republican candidate for Governor is a for sure deal, and he is hispanic, so he definitely rubs Harry Reid the wrong way. He said that no sane hispanic would be a Republican.

Gilbert said...

‎(Fade up from black, man with very deep voice begins speaking)

Who is...Dan Philips? (Shows picture of Dan smiling in front of bookshelf)

In 2005, he called himself "A Christian"...and yet...

He's seen with a sword, ready to chop away at loving liberal tolerance. (Dissolves to picture of Dan outside wielding sword).

And then he has associated with his conservative readers for years on two different blogs!

Hasn't California had enough of these shady politics? ...Doesn't he have any shame?

(Door slams with loud, resonating echo, shows picture of Dan with red "X" on face)

Dan Philips...too extreme for God.

(Text on bottom of screen: Paid for by the Word-Faith movement, The Emergent Church, and those who should know better)

...I've been watching WAYYYY too many political ads. Sorry.

I've said it before: most Republicans are spineless moderates, voting the way the wind blows and polls go. We could win every election, every House/Senate seat. For the most part, it wouldn't matter. "Center" is so far left that it's modestly liberal.

I have no hope in politics, and certainly not in change to where we should be. We are voting the government we deserve.

DJP said...

The ad: LOL, except that would be mild!

We are voting the government we deserve.

Oh please God no.

Paula Bolyard said...

Rachael said, "Thanks to the raucous celebrations now ensuing thanks to the Giants win, Dems stay home in droves to sleep it off."

That would be some sweeeeet justice!!! My biggest fear with a Giants World Series win was another Nancy Pelosi parade with that big gavel. But now you've given me hope that some good might yet come of the Rangers' loss!

Mike Westfall said...

Boxer and Brown, FTW.
What else would you expect from the California voters?

Followed of course by an embiggened defection of businesses to other states, resulting in more unemployment in California.

Sucks to still be a resident of California, I guess.

Kirby said...

62 House seats
11 Senate

25 years ago I made a decision to leave California (my birthplace and home for 26 years) after I voted against a bond issue of something like a 30 billion dollar retrofit of bridges and road against earthquakes. This was before fires began to wipe out dozens of houses at a time. I knew that I and my kids (of which I had none at the time) were going to be on the hook for massive taxes down the road. I think sales taxes were only 7-1/4 percent when I left after seminary in 1996.

This was even before Governors were Democrats. But Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein and Maxine Waters drove me away.

Anyway, God, in his Providential care, moved me first to Indiana, then...drum roll...wait for it comes....

scroll down


You can stop laughing now.

And the sad thing is, even though I moved from the frying pan to the fire, I still feel better.

We will vote in a Republican governor today, but he is not a child saver. What is sad is that both Senators Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow were reelected in the last election cycle. Why could it not be this time?

Well, I have kids now and a couple of them realize that this is an historic election. But not as historic as the very, very, very first one (ala Eph. 1:4)

Have a great day.

John said...

Help me understand.

1 - you have to have a master's in English to understand what a "no" vote really means on a proposition.

2 - we have old cars...our 93 Previa barely passed 2 years ago. Called my faithful smog check shop today. He tells me in april Calif halved the emission standards...made them 2 times harder to pass. He used to fail 1-out-of-10 cars now it's 8-out-of-10. And he said the state is paying $14 million per MONTH to fix peoples' cars that fail...

Help me understand.